Global Scans · Recession · Weekly Summary

• [New] Deloitte's baseline scenario even predicts accelerating inflation through late 2026, potentially prompting the Fed to raise interest rates modestly in the second half of 2026, leading to a recession by Q4 2026. The Chronicle-Journal
• [New] The scenario of a mild recession in the U.S. could adversely affect growth elsewhere, including Europe, Japan and China. Morgan Stanley
• [New] Alternative scenarios include stronger-than-expected demand in the U.S., surprising AI productivity gains - or a mild recession. Morgan Stanley
• [New] The lack of momentum, combined with subdued business investment and cautious consumer spending, has raised concerns about the potential for the U.K. economy to slip closer to recession. Gooner Daily
• [New] Russia has been in a technical recession for six months and faces systemic risks inside its banking sector. Economic Times
• [New] The European Union may be in a recession but it could hardly be justification for the multitude of populist (anti-EU, anti-globalization, xenophobic, and racist) movements that have sprung up even in countries with solid economies such as Finland, Denmark, and UK. ECPS
• [New] Ontario's agri-food sector is large, increasingly productive and generally recession resilient but faces risks that include increasing volatile worldwide commodity supplies and potential U.S. tariffs. Ontario.ca
• [New] In data, China will release a flurry of figures likely to paint a bleak picture for November, with the year-to-date slide in fixed-asset investment seen deepening to minus 2.3% as the slump in property investment worsens to minus 15.4% for the first 11 months. financialpost
• Risk is the FOMC front-loads rate cuts to 3.0% in 2026 to prevent the hiring slump from morphing into widespread firing. Brown Brothers Harriman
• Federal Reserve rate cuts aimed at normalizing policy, rather than staving off recession, would likely support further gains for stocks in 2026. The Plan Advocate
• A prolonged stagnation or U-shaped recession could occur if Fed actions are less effective and companies struggle to adapt, leading to persistent unemployment. FinancialContent

Last updated: 17 December 2025