Global Scans · Recession · Weekly Summary

• [New] The current oil price shock will most likely not just lead to inflation, but also push the UK economy into recession, raising unemployment and reducing GDP. The Guardian
• [New] A protracted Middle East conflict could push Britain's economy into recession. The Guardian
• [New] A number of risks could increase the chances of a U.S. recession in 2026. TEMPO.CO
• [New] The crisis in the Middle East could plunge the UK into a recession in the worst case scenario where oil prices surge higher over the next two months. City AM
• [New] The sharp slump in Middle East production could lead to a global oil output slump of 8m barrels a day in 2026 - even with increased production from countries including Russia. The Guardian
• [New] Crude could reach $108 a barrel, adding a significant boost to inflation and even pushing some European economies to the brink of recession. Los Angeles Times
• [New] A longer war will not only produce significant U.S. casualties but also exacerbate the adverse economic consequences already evident, including a spike in energy prices, significantly increasing the chances of a global recession. The Soufan Center
• [New] If the real-time measure is closer to reality, the US economy may be approaching deflationary territory, an environment historically associated with recession risk. investing.com
• [New] A serious conflict with Iran would be a major economic headwind, with the risk of a recession to climb sharply. Business Insider
• [New] Maersk, which is often seen as a bellwether for global trade, projected global container-volume growth of 2% to 4% for 2026, a slowdown from 5% in 2025, citing recession risks in the global economy. MarketScreener
• [New] Canadian oil sands producers lead by Cenovus Energy Inc. plan to expand production next year despite an impending supply glut that threatens to deepen the slump in crude prices. Canadian Energy News, Top Headlines, Commentaries, Feat
• The immediate inflationary shock will force energy-intensive manufacturing in Asia and Europe to shut down completely, plunging the global economy into a synchronous recession. Mauricio Vellasquez
• The joint U.S. and Israeli attack on OPEC member Iran risks a major oil supply disruption in the Middle East that, in a worst-case scenario, could trigger a global economic recession. CNBC
• If the slump in tech and finance continues to deepen, it could eventually spill over into broader consumer spending, turning the current soft landing into a more traditional economic contraction by late 2026. The Chronicle-Journal
• Fed's paused easing cycle and sticky inflation create pressure on corporate margins, with J.P. Morgan forecasting 35% recession risk from prolonged hysteresis effects. Ainvest
• Respondents who said recession is somewhat likely over 2027 increased somewhat, and the percent believing we are already in one dipped. / USA Cision PR Newswire
• There's a far-bigger-than-usual risk 2026's post-Chinese New Year gold demand slump in China will prove much worse than normal. investing.com
• While higher tariffs may eventually dampen import volumes, the risk of a global recession triggered by trade barriers could simultaneously collapse U.S. export markets. The Chronicle-Journal
• In 2026, many advanced economies are trapped in a systemic dilemma: continuing expansionary policies risks fueling inflation and monetary instability; cutting spending risks recession and social crisis. Geopolitika
• Australia is at risk of a pretty bad recession, an economist has warned, with inflation trending upward and the Albanese government failing to rein in spending. Sky News Australia
• A global recession or a sudden surge in supply from OPEC + could squeeze margins. The Chronicle-Journal
• Even if the Russia-Ukraine conflict were eventually resolved, the Russian economy would still face elevated risks of stagnation or recession. Modern Diplomacy

Last updated: 18 March 2026