Global Scans · Conflict · Weekly Summary

WHAT'S NEXT?: Rising tensions around are bringing new and regional geopolitical threats and the possibility of eventual global war. Keep abreast of the unfolding drama and know where the risks and opportunities are in the world.

• [New] We hold a pessimistic outlook for the Botswana consumer over 2026 and 2027, forecasting real household spending to contract as diamond sector weakness dampens economic activity and a renewed inflationary uptick, driven by the US-Iran conflict, erodes consumer purchasing power. Fitch Solutions
• [New] VLADIMIR Putin has revealed a new alliance with China to create space weapons that could unleash havoc in the West if its satellites were targeted. DebateUS
• [New] In Sudan, the UN Security Council's August monthly forecast and the World Food Programme's country brief highlighted persistent famine risk across 14 areas, with conflict-driven displacement and blocked humanitarian access continuing to drive one of the world's largest hunger crises. Devpolicy Blog from the Development Policy Centre
• [New] There are renewed warnings that threats to food and water security in the Pacific arising from a stronger than usual El Nino climate pattern will compound the shocks emanating from the ongoing Middle East conflict. Devpolicy Blog from the Development Policy Centre
• [New] A de-escalation in the Middle East or in the war between Russia and Ukraine could lend markets additional support. DJE Kapital AG
• [New] A stable security environment after the end of the civil war will be essential to improving the business environment and attracting more companies to invest in South Sudan. BTI 2026
• [New] Challenging Developments Insurers in the Pacific continue to watch the Middle East conflict closely, with attention on supply chain disruption and the potential for renewed inflationary pressure on repair and replacement costs. Aon
• [New] Geopolitical risk - particularly the Middle East conflict - is reshaping underwriting in real time. Aon
• [New] While armed clashes have increased on internal front lines, neither the Houthis nor the IRG has attempted a serious push to claim territory so far, which would seriously risk actively reigniting the Yemen civil war. Acled
• [New] Without an end to the US-Iran war, or increased international efforts at deterrence, Somali piracy stands to continue raising the threat level in a crucial maritime space that is already dangerously squeezed. BBC News
• [New] The EU's gas stores have struggled to rise towards a watered-down target of 80% full by the start of winter, since the US-Israel war on Iran triggered severe disruption to exports of oil and gas from the Gulf region. The Guardian
• [New] CBOT wheat prices extended their rally for the fourth consecutive session yesterday, as fears of an escalating Russia-Ukraine conflict raised concerns over grain exports from a critical global supply region. investing.com
• [New] The escalating spiral of strikes is leading a growing number of Russian officials to the conclusion that Putin could eventually opt to use tactical nuclear weapons as a last resort in Ukraine. Farm Progress
• [New] The baseline forecast assumes that the intensity of the military conflict between the United States, Israel and Iran will gradually subside during the second half of this year. Ministry of Finance CR
• [New] Production and exports of crude oil and liquefied natural gas are expected to recover gradually and could approach pre-conflict levels during the first half of 2027; however, certain constraints linked to damaged infrastructure and disrupted trade routes will persist for longer. Ministry of Finance CR
• [New] Iran's Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC) has vowed to deliver a crushing response to any threat or aggression as a war termination deal between Iran and the United States expires with no breakthrough in sight in talks aimed at permanently ending hostilities. Counter Extremism Project
• [New] The Ethiopian military and Tigray People's Liberation Front engaged in major but thus far limited fighting in northern Ethiopia's Tigray region, increasing the immediate risk of miscalculation or further escalation and creating conditions for a renewed war. Critical Threats
• [New] The main upside risk is a more extended and broader conflict in the Middle East and further escalations in the Russia-Ukraine war, resulting in further increases in international commodity prices and their subsequent impact on domestic prices. Bank of Jamaica
• [New] The war in Iran and the resulting disruptions to oil shipping could give them more reason to work together as the high price of fuel presents an opportunity to profit. Africa Center
• [New] The Somali population already experiencing humanitarian crises globally will face additional displacement as conflict intensifies. HORN REVIEW
• [New] Adding another layer of complexity, industry analysts warn of an imminent drone war targeting global shipping infrastructure. TheFinanceBulletins Media Group
• [New] Escalating conflict in Yemen is killing and injuring a growing number of civilians, the UN human rights chief warned on Monday, as Houthi rebels also strike Saudi Arabia and Red Sea shipping linked to the wider Iran-US confrontation. United Nations
• [New] The conflict in the Middle East, which is causing high volatility in commodity prices and significant disruptions to supply chains, is weighing on trade. Coface

Last updated: 01 September 2026