Global Scans · Conflict · Weekly Summary

WHAT'S NEXT?: Rising tensions around are bringing new and regional geopolitical threats and the possibility of eventual global war. Keep abreast of the unfolding drama and know where the risks and opportunities are in the world.

• [New] Clauses concerning the impact of war, such as force majeure provisions, may well be triggered - a risk that may widen in geographic scope as Yemen's Iranian-allied Houthi rebels threaten vessels in the Red Sea. Mishcon de Reya LLP
• [New] The mutual defence pact, which does not name a specific threat, was signed more than five months into the United States-Israel war on Iran, a conflict that has pulled missile and drone fire onto Gulf oil exporters, including Saudi Arabia, and shut down much of the Strait of Hormuz. Al Jazeera
• [New] A widening of the war amongst US allies (Saudi Arabia) against Iran and its allies (Houthis) has put passage in the Rea Sea via the Bab-al Mandab Strait at risk and could further complicate supply chains for Asia demand and keep both global oil and LNG prices further supported. Constellation
• [New] Fears of a wider conflict grow as Yemen's army counterattacks and expert warns 'all the warning signs are there'. Al Jazeera
• [New] A Mercuria success would raise questions about how index-linked contracts respond when war, sanctions, or security risks disrupt benchmark routes. Mishcon de Reya LLP
• [New] Strong growth in SLB OneSubsea and valves was more than offset by lower sales of surface production systems, production chemicals, completions and artificial lift, primarily due to disruptions related to the Middle East conflict. SLB
• [New] Excluding war-related risks, commercial insurance rates across India, the Middle East and Africa fell by 16% in the second quarter, the steepest decline of any global region. AGBI
• [New] Two oil tankers carrying Saudi crude to Asia reversed course in the Red Sea on Tuesday after threats from Yemen's Iran-aligned Houthis, as a widening Middle East conflict disrupted shipping through two of the world's most critical energy chokepoints. Counter Extremism Project
• [New] The most immediate downside risk remains a prolonged escalation of the Middle East conflict that lifts inflation and long-term interest rates and pushes the Federal Reserve toward renewed policy tightening. Fox Business
• [New] If inflation were to reignite amid escalations in the U.S.-Iran war, it could raise the probability of a rate hike later in 2026. CBS News
• [New] Putin is betting that higher food prices, at a time when the American war with Iran is already driving up the cost of oil and much else, will persuade Ukraine's trade partners, particularly in Europe, to press Kiev to de-escalate its attacks inside Russia. Time
• [New] As early as 2029, the US public debt will reach 107% of GDP or a higher level than prevailed at the end of the Second World War. American Enterprise Institute - AEI
• [New] As the resumption of the Iran war escalates, with Washington and Tehran trading a deluge of strikes, President Donald Trump has again threatened to attack sites linked to Iran's nuclear programme. Time
• [New] There is no doubt that the elevated fuel prices, airspace disruptions and longer flight routes resulting from the Middle East conflict have affected the commercial viability of the arrangement for both parties. News Powered by Cision
• [New] Future developments in U.S. and Israeli military planning will be crucial indicators of potential escalation in the Iran conflict. Crypto Briefing
• [New] Today, Saudi Arabia's tenuous ceasefire with the Houthis is in danger of collapsing - yet another casualty of Trump's disastrous war against Iran. The Guardian
• [New] There has been a slow drop-off in world leaders attending the G20 partly owing to geopolitical rifts over Ukraine and questions over its value, but by 2027 the economic fallout from the war in Iran may require economic and political coordination. The Guardian
• [New] The trajectory of the U.S.-Iran conflict and its resolution efforts will be crucial. Crypto Briefing
• [New] The risks remain visible today: the Middle East conflict has left dozens of container ships stranded near the Strait of Hormuz, delaying shipments of food, fuel and vehicles and highlighting how quickly geopolitical shocks can ripple through global trade. Dare, HEC Media Hub
• [New] The escalating conflict has raised fears that the Houthis could block the Bab al-Mandeb Strait, which connects the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden. Al Jazeera
• [New] The 2026 Iran conflict escalated after a ceasefire breakdown in June, with US military operations targeting threats to commercial shipping in one of the world's most critical chokepoints. Crypto Briefing
• [New] The Bank of England has kept UK interest rates on hold as it warned that a further escalation in the Iran war could drive inflation above 4% in 2027, adding to cost of living pressures on households. The Guardian
• [New] Joint U.S. and Saudi Arabian airstrikes on Iran-backed militia positions in Iraq on Wednesday have intensified fears that the Middle East conflict is entering a more dangerous phase. The Week

Last updated: 11 August 2026