Global Scans · Conflict · Weekly Summary

WHAT'S NEXT?: Rising tensions around are bringing new and regional geopolitical threats and the possibility of eventual global war. Keep abreast of the unfolding drama and know where the risks and opportunities are in the world.

• [New] Risks are tilted toward a more hawkish Selic rate and largely depend on the duration of the US-Iran conflict. Fitch Solutions
• [New] The Netherlands will allocate 250 million euros ($286 million) to develop Ukraine's drone capabilities and another 250 million euros for the purchase of US weapons through the Prioritized Ukraine Requirements. Critical Threats
• [New] Ukrainian forces will only improve their strike capabilities when Russian forces improve their air defences, acknowledging the offense-defense war that has characterized Russia's full-scale invasion thus far. Critical Threats
• [New] The Indian Army placed multiple orders for SSS Defence's T-12 semi-automatic shotgun, marking the first time the Bengaluru-based company will supply a weapon system to the military. Ronin's Grips Analytics
• [New] Despite the destabilising effect of the Middle East conflict, global energy investment is expected to reach $3.4 trillion in 2026, up 5% from 2025. MarineLink
• [New] Iran's adversaries maintained a missile interception rate over 90% for the duration of the conflict and US-made air defence systems on land and at sea demonstrated their ability to largely neutralize the Iranian missile threat. American Enterprise Institute - AEI
• [New] U.S. airline stocks climbed 3 to 7% on Thursday as crude oil prices retreated to levels last seen before the Iran war, with investors front-running the assumption that the IATA-flagged $22 billion industry profit hit will partially reverse. AviationOutlook Newsletter
• [New] Escalating geopolitical tensions, including the ongoing Iran war, are reshaping global transport patterns disrupting airspace, rerouting shipping lanes, and increasing operational and security risks. Asia Insurance Review
• [New] The U.S. will send drones to Ukraine as part of the Biden administration's new $800 million weapons package. Militarnyi
• [New] Fears of a long-lasting global energy crunch induced by the Iran conflict are slinking away, with oil prices sinking back towards pre-crisis levels. The Guardian
• [New] A conflict involving Taiwan, a major cyberwar between nation-states, disruptions to critical shipping routes, or sanctions-related financial fragmentation could generate second-order effects that are difficult to capture through traditional recession assumptions. Forbes
• [New] Optimism about the twelve-month outlook reached its highest point since February, with some of the improvement attributed to signs that the conflict in the Middle East could be moving toward resolution, although overall confidence remained below historical norms. Yahoo! Finance
• [New] Unlike in past eras, when the United States maintained major leads in stealth and precision-guided weapons, the current age will not afford the United States an advantage in the technologies that are now transforming warfare: drones and artificial intelligence. Foreign Affairs Magazine
• [New] Europe is becoming a major threat to international peace and security by providing military support to Ukraine, and claimed that the US was no longer trying to be an objective mediator to broker an end to Russia's war against Ukraine. Euronews
• [New] We will see pressure on US companies to prioritise replenishment of domestic war stocks, rather than to serve international partners. Royal Aeronautical Society
• [New] The domestic energy price cap will increase by 13% from July, driven by the ongoing US / Israel - Iran war and rising gas prices. Strutt & Parker - Rural Hub
• [New] Future troop deployments and base locations in Europe could be altered depending on how allies align with Pentagon priorities, including the recent U.S. war against Iran. The American Legion
• [New] The conflict in Europe exposed the vulnerability of energy assets to drone-enabled attacks. Autonomy Global - Industry Insights: Latest in Autonomo
• [New] Based on the agreements reached, the war and military operations on all fronts, including Lebanon, will end immediately and permanently as of tonight, and in addition, the naval blockade against Iran will end immediately and completely. Al Jazeera
• [New] After a first half defined by the Iran war and its impact on oil, commodity prices and inflation, the rest of 2026 will test the global economy, even as AI-driven optimism continues to lift growth. Yahoo! Finance
• [New] The Iran war exposed the dangers of relying on a single chokepoint for vital oil and gas exports, leaving Gulf governments with a clear strategic imperative: diversify - at all costs. MarineLink

Last updated: 30 June 2026