Global Scans · Conflict · Weekly Summary

WHAT'S NEXT?: Rising tensions around are bringing new and regional geopolitical threats and the possibility of eventual global war. Keep abreast of the unfolding drama and know where the risks and opportunities are in the world.

• [New] The Kremlin notably has not offered any assurances that Russia will refrain from escalating its war in Ukraine even if the United States were to refrain from provisioning Ukraine with Tomahawk missiles. Critical Threats
• [New] ISW has observed the well-demonstrated pattern that Russia escalates its war in Ukraine as soon as it develops new weapons systems and tactics that Russia assesses will help its war effort. Critical Threats
• [New] As concerns grow about the possibility of a war with Russia in the coming years, NATO's European members have begun strengthening their defences in preparation for the potential of Russian forces crossing into alliance territory. Caliber.az
• [New] Diplomacy and domestic shifts - from succession to the ageing supreme leader to changes in regional policy - could reduce risks, but the prospect of Israel launching a renewed and more forceful war remains high. Acled
• [New] The Suez, Panama, and Black Sea routes are facing major disruptions from conflict and climate impacts, threatening global supply chains. oilprice.com
• [New] If more individuals with greater organizational skills and operational acumen seek to pursue QAnon's agenda, it could eventually lead to more significant threats to public security and become a more impactful domestic terrorism threat. International Centre for Counter-Terrorism - ICCT
• [New] Ukraine's Western allies need to resolve some big questions about the future part they will play as Europe's biggest conflict since World War II heads toward its fourth anniversary. WHEC.com
• [New] While rates are starting to decline, escalating tensions around the world are affecting hull war policies, with restrictions being imposed on countries, refuelling locations, and time on the ground for some risks. Price Forbes
• [New] China, Russia's closest ally, and India, which has sought to remain neutral in the war in Ukraine, have until now dismissed western pressure to curb their purchases of Russian energy as empty threats. The Guardian
• [New] Any future agreements with Russia will prioritize transitional justice and reparations for damage caused by Russia's involvement in the Syrian conflict. Critical Threats
• [New] In dealing with nuclear war risks involving North Korea, Russia, China, India or Pakistan, no concept could prove more important than synergy. Modern Diplomacy
• [New] A leak from the spy agencies of the US, Canada, Britain, Australia and New Zealand pointed to the development of a new command and control system for all-out war against China, which will come online as soon as 2027. World Socialist Web Site
• [New] The alarming possibility that Russia could supply North Korea with technology for nuclear weapons delivery systems, including missile reentry vehicles and submarine propulsion, has sent shockwaves through intelligence communities across the West. Second Line of Defense
• [New] The U.S. Department of War will invest in the construction of a 100 metric ton-per-year advanced gallium refinery in Western Australia, further advancing self-reliance in critical minerals processing. The White House
• [New] With self-driving vehicles, care and companionship robots, and even terrifying automated weapons in various stages of development and use, physical AI will be a far more visible part of life in 2026. Forbes
• [New] President Donald Trump on Sunday warned Russia that he may send Ukraine long-range Tomahawk missiles if Moscow does not settle its war there soon - suggesting that he could be ready to increase the pressure on Vladimir Putin's government using a key weapons system. The American Legion
• [New] Danish intelligence has classified Russia's activities against NATO as increasingly intense hybrid warfare, just below armed conflict, amid repeated threats to Danish warships and helicopters in national waters. MonkeyWerx
• [New] The medium-term acquisition of nuclear-powered, conventionally armed submarines under AUKUS, intended to deter conflict, is irrelevant to the short-term problem of maintaining deterrence through the coming five-year period of heightened risk (2027-2032). / Australia ASPI
• [New] The war in Ukraine is far from settled and could explode into an even greater crisis, depending on how things evolve. Space War
• [New] The United States will sell weapons to Europe that can be transferred to Ukraine. Space War
• [New] Tomahawks, used together with other weapons already in Ukrainian arsenals, would constitute a potent threat to Russia. The Atlantic
• [New] Russia will start to prepare a new more professional war against Ukraine. BBC News

Last updated: 28 October 2025