Global Scans · Conflict · Weekly Summary

WHAT'S NEXT?: Rising tensions around are bringing new and regional geopolitical threats and the possibility of eventual global war. Keep abreast of the unfolding drama and know where the risks and opportunities are in the world.

• [New] With UK CPI inflation falling more sharply than expected in April, the June decision is receiving greater attention than any since the Middle East conflict disrupted the expected rate-cutting path in early 2026. BritSavvy
• [New] As NATO's proxy war against Russia in Ukraine enters its fifth year, the strikes on Russia's second-largest city, St. Petersburg, and Germany's announcement that it will produce weapons systems with a range of 1,500 kilometers together with Ukraine are increasing the risk of a nuclear conflict. World Socialist Web Site
• [New] Although global risks were elevated because of the Iran war, the outlook for global growth in 2026 remained positive and the terms of trade continue to be favourable for the Peruvian economy. Central Banking
• [New] A sudden de-escalation in the Iran conflict - with planned strikes called off and reports that a deal could be signed in Europe as soon as this weekend - reversed the risk-off mood that had pulled the entire crypto complex lower for weeks. investing.com
• [New] US futures are higher, global equities are catching a bid, oil is breaking lower, and the dollar is softer as traders price in the possibility that the US and Iran are moving toward a provisional agreement that could reopen the Strait of Hormuz and take the sharpest edge off the war premium. investing.com
• [New] Consecutive rate hikes could be warranted if the Middle East conflict continues and higher energy prices start leading to ongoing generalized inflation. investing.com
• [New] If the Iran conflict is resolved, there may be a risk that inflation remains persistently low, prompting policymakers to consider a cut. investing.com
• [New] For several weeks, crude prices had been supported by growing concerns that tensions between the United States and Iran could eventually lead to direct military conflict. investing.com
• [New] Should the Iran war end and oil and gas prices decline, headline inflation could begin to cool. WSLS 10
• [New] The conflict in the Middle East is weighing on the short-term growth outlook, with energy price shocks and uncertainty proving stronger and more persistent than previously expected, further reducing purchasing power and confidence. European Central Bank
• [New] The baseline projections see headline inflation, as measured by the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices, peaking at 3.4% in the third and fourth quarters of 2026 and remaining above 3.0% until early 2027, driven by a surge in energy inflation as a result of the conflict in the Middle East. European Central Bank
• [New] The ongoing Iran war is projected to slow global economic growth to its weakest pace since the Covid-19 pandemic and renewed hostilities could cause it to slump further. CNN
• [New] Key findings of SIPRI Yearbook 2026 are that states are increasingly relying on nuclear weapons as instruments of national power-reversing decades of efforts to reduce the numbers and role of nuclear weapons - even as the risks of miscalculation and escalation are rising. Sipri
• [New] The escalating conflict in the Middle East, with the second day of U.S. strikes and the threat of more, has driven exactly the kind of risk-off flows that pressure cable. investing.com
• [New] Should Trump finally order a return to kinetic war, that will send stocks sharply lower too, and the price of Crude Oil soaring. / Iran DailyForex
• [New] The worsening humanitarian crisis in the Horn of Africa comes against a backdrop of high political tension, which analysts say will only hamper efforts to help displaced Somalis. The Guardian
• [New] The fighting in Lebanon, where Israeli forces have seized large swaths of the south, threatens efforts to end the Iran war and reopen the strait of Hormuz. The Guardian
• [New] The scale of the disruption to oil and gas supplies caused by the war in the Middle East is unprecedented, and comes just four years after another crisis precipitated by Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Bloomberg
• [New] Fading hopes for a near-term resolution to the Middle East war and reopening the Strait of Hormuz are stirring fears that energy price pressures could morph into wider, systemic inflation. ST
• [New] Discussions highlighted the significant volatility shock across the sector caused by the Middle East conflict, with Citadel's commodities head noting that markets have underestimated the long-term supply chain disruptions caused by current geopolitical escalations. Commodities Global Summit
• [New] Oil revenue windfalls from the war in the Middle East will not be enough, as oil prices would need to stay above $100 per barrel for at least one year to improve the Russian economy. Critical Threats
• [New] As technology accelerates and alliances loosen, the risk is not global war alone, but systemic fragmentation - where coordination becomes impossible even in the face of shared threats. Geostrategic Media
• [New] The PRC is attempting to take advantage of global energy supply disruptions related to the US-Iran war to delegitimize the Lai administration and cause panic in Taiwan over potential LNG shortages. American Enterprise Institute - AEI

Last updated: 16 June 2026