Global Scans · Conflict · Weekly Summary

WHAT'S NEXT?: Rising tensions around are bringing new and regional geopolitical threats and the possibility of eventual global war. Keep abreast of the unfolding drama and know where the risks and opportunities are in the world.

• [New] The risk of Russia using tactical nuclear weapons remains extremely low because their military effectiveness on today's dispersed battlefield is limited, while the political cost of breaking the nuclear taboo would be high. Farm Progress
• [New] A larger conflict could cause indirect proxy escalation between Ethiopia and Sudan. Critical Threats
• [New] The disruption to global oil supplies caused by the U.S.-Iran conflict and the blockage of the Strait of Hormuz is producing sizeable inventory declines, although Citi believes worldwide stockpiles could continue providing substantial cover for several more years. Yahoo! Finance UK
• [New] Under Xi, China might make very deliberate and aggressive choices regarding Taiwan, the South China Sea and elsewhere in the full knowledge that conflict was a possibility. The Strategist
• [New] Iranian rhetoric threatening Israel, support for armed proxy organizations, attacking Israelis with ballistic missiles and drones, and any credible movement towards a nuclear weapon are well-founded Israeli security concerns. Manara Magazine
• [New] Moscow could strike British military installations and equipment inside and outside Ukraine in response to Ukrainian attacks on Russian territory using British weapons. Economic Times
• [New] Ukraine is not simply receiving another shipment of finished missiles; it is being given technical information that could eventually help it manufacture long-range weapons domestically. Economic Times
• [New] With more state elections a fortnight later in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania and Berlin, it could end the consensus that, since the second world war, has kept the far right at bay in Germany. The Guardian
• [New] Concerns that the US-Iran war will remain unresolved and keep Middle East oil supplies limited are boosting crude prices. Barchart.com
• [New] Strong growth across Latin America, Europe & Africa, Asia and North America largely compensated for lower revenue in the Middle East, where operations continued to be affected by disruptions associated with the regional conflict. Las Vegas Sun
• [New] Israel has once again thrashed its enemies without defeating them, and after nearly three years of war in Gaza and new land seizures, is at risk of a generational rupture with the U.S., its closest ally. The Fort Morgan Times
• [New] Russia-Ukraine war escalation threatens global grain supplies as attacks target Black Sea ports during harvest season, risking wheat exports. Farm Progress
• [New] Canada's tit-for-tat tariffs are the latest volley in a widening trade war pitting two longtime allies against each other, a fight that experts say could hurt both countries economically. CBS News
• [New] The first surplus will emerge in August, at around 1.2 mbd, as Persian Gulf supply recovers to about 90% of pre-war volumes, rising further to 97% in October and reaching near full recovery in November. J.P. MORGAN
• [New] Yemen's Iran-backed Houthi rebels claimed they fired drones at an oil refinery in neighboring Saudi Arabia, the latest attack threatening to reignite Yemen's civil war and open another front in the Middle East. ABC News
• We hold a pessimistic outlook for the Botswana consumer over 2026 and 2027, forecasting real household spending to contract as diamond sector weakness dampens economic activity and a renewed inflationary uptick, driven by the US-Iran conflict, erodes consumer purchasing power. Fitch Solutions
• VLADIMIR Putin has revealed a new alliance with China to create space weapons that could unleash havoc in the West if its satellites were targeted. DebateUS
• In Sudan, the UN Security Council's August monthly forecast and the World Food Programme's country brief highlighted persistent famine risk across 14 areas, with conflict-driven displacement and blocked humanitarian access continuing to drive one of the world's largest hunger crises. Devpolicy Blog from the Development Policy Centre
• There are renewed warnings that threats to food and water security in the Pacific arising from a stronger than usual El Nino climate pattern will compound the shocks emanating from the ongoing Middle East conflict. Devpolicy Blog from the Development Policy Centre
• A de-escalation in the Middle East or in the war between Russia and Ukraine could lend markets additional support. DJE Kapital AG
• A stable security environment after the end of the civil war will be essential to improving the business environment and attracting more companies to invest in South Sudan. BTI 2026
• Challenging Developments Insurers in the Pacific continue to watch the Middle East conflict closely, with attention on supply chain disruption and the potential for renewed inflationary pressure on repair and replacement costs. Aon

Last updated: 15 September 2026