Global Scans · Conflict · Weekly Summary

WHAT'S NEXT?: Rising tensions around are bringing new and regional geopolitical threats and the possibility of eventual global war. Keep abreast of the unfolding drama and know where the risks and opportunities are in the world.

• [New] There is a 16% probability Russia and any NATO member state are in direct conflict before 2027. GOV.UK
• [New] China is potentially preparing to engage in some kind of conflict over Taiwan in 2027. Pharmacy Times
• [New] Russia's president, Vladimir Putin, keeps insisting that he will achieve his war aims of fully annexing another four Ukrainian regions - in addition to Crimea - by force or diplomacy. The Conversation
• [New] The escalating rhetoric has stoked international anxiety, with military experts warning that the shadow of a third world war is looming larger than ever over European soil. Daily Record
• [New] The war between Russia and Ukraine has clearly begun to threaten navigational safety in the Black Sea. World Socialist Web Site
• [New] Any attempt to blockade Kaliningrad, a vulnerable Russian exclave between Poland and Lithuania, could trigger a large-scale conflict. Al Jazeera
• [New] Russia had begun moving toward mass production of the Oreshnik, having previously touted its destructive power as comparable to that of a nuclear weapon and claiming it could not be intercepted. The Moscow Times
• [New] Iran may have been seeking laser technology and expertise that could help [Iran] validate a nuclear weapon design without conducting a nuclear explosive test. Critical Threats
• [New] The Iranian assumption that Israel will resume the Israel-Iran War in the short term is likely animating the decision to prioritize the Iranian missile program over other defence priorities. Critical Threats
• [New] European countries, including Germany, France and the UK, have announced they will increase their defence spending and investments in military amid Russia's war in Ukraine. Al Jazeera
• [New] The expected shift toward domestic and Western hemisphere priorities, with a secondary focus on China, would represent one of the largest reorientations of US foreign policy priorities since the end of World War II. gmfus
• [New] Israel's war on Gaza has not ended and that Hamas will be disarmed. Al Jazeera
• [New] Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will make the disarmament of Gaza the main sticking point, knowing in advance that Gaza will not surrender its weapons. Middle East Monitor
• [New] Even if the Gaza war were to end, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's categorical rejection of the establishment of an independent Palestinian state will preclude any effort to resolve the broader Israeli-Palestinian dispute. The Soufan Center
• [New] Geopolitical risks could intensify in 2026, with rising tension across the Middle East, the Korean Peninsula, Eastern Europe, as well as increasing friction between the US and Venezuela. Hospitality Net
• [New] The Pentagon restructuring will have direct authority over major weapons programs to eliminate bureaucracy. 93.3 The Drive
• [New] In the United States, hawks in the nuclear weapons labs, like Livermore Lab, and in Washington, DC will not only continue to design new warheads and launchers, but, with the demise of the New START Agreement, they will also be free to increase the sheer numbers of warheads. Tri Valley CAREs
• [New] Without any New START Agreement, there will be no limits on U.S. and Russian nuclear weapons stockpiles. Tri Valley CAREs
• [New] Sovereign debt levels had reached post-war highs in many advanced economies and were projected to rise even further to around 120% of GDP in advanced economies by 2030. World Socialist Web Site
• [New] The fierce competition has fueled a global talent war for top AI researchers and led to a patchwork of data sovereignty laws that threaten to fragment the once-borderless cloud. Grand Pinnacle Tribune
• [New] Young people are split between their fear of conflict and of being overrun by Ethiopia, whose wartime atrocities are still in recent memory. Africa Daily
• [New] The threat to American space systems is not simply anti-satellite weapons, but also jamming and cyber attacks. Moon Daily
• [New] Diplomatic tension is expected in Hungarian-Slovak relations. Szerbia, Horvatorszag, Bosznia | Balk.hu

Last updated: 23 December 2025