Global Scans · Conflict · Weekly Summary

WHAT'S NEXT?: Rising tensions around are bringing new and regional geopolitical threats and the possibility of eventual global war. Keep abreast of the unfolding drama and know where the risks and opportunities are in the world.

• [New] Even if the Russia-Ukraine conflict were eventually resolved, the Russian economy would still face elevated risks of stagnation or recession. Modern Diplomacy
• [New] Russia will remain the most serious threat to European security even after the war in Ukraine ends. International Centre for Defence and Security
• [New] We cannot fail to mention the intensifying signs of tension in East Asia, and to express hope that all parties involved will adopt a peaceful and dialogue-based approach to the contentious issues that are a source of potential conflict. Catholic Standard
• [New] In the Middle East, the war involving Israel and Gaza continues to elevate regional risk, reinforcing demand for air defence, intelligence capability and naval protection. DIY Investor
• [New] The UK and France have confirmed readiness to deploy forces to Ukraine once a ceasefire is secured, signalling that post-war security will rely on permanent military frameworks rather than temporary guarantees. DIY Investor
• [New] In 2026, terrorist groups in conflict hotspots will continue refining and learning how best to deploy drones for their missions and how to circumvent drone countermeasures implemented by overstretched security institutions across the Sahel and the Horn of Africa. The Soufan Center
• [New] Over the course of in 2026, there could be a major uptick in left-wing terrorism domestically aimed at government and immigration enforcement targets. The Soufan Center
• [New] Conflict on the Korean Peninsula or in the Taiwan Strait could disrupt production flows and global supply chains, causing significant economic impacts at regional and systemic levels. SpecialEurasia
• [New] By late 2026, winning tactics will likely incorporate AI-assisted target recognition and swarm coordination elements, with competition scenarios evolving to include contested electromagnetic spectrum conditions that mirror near-peer conflict realities. Drone Warfare
• [New] Ukraine will likely expand counter-UAS integration with AI-enabled detection networks and directed energy weapons to manage the economic burden of kinetic interception at scale. Drone Warfare
• [New] The U.S. and allies will likely accelerate counter-measures including enhanced maritime domain awareness, anti-drone systems on naval vessels, and legal frameworks to justify preemptive action against dual-use merchant vessels in conflict zones. Drone Warfare
• [New] The Kremlin will view any US security guarantee framework as a tripwire mechanism designed to engineer direct NATO-Russia conflict, necessitating either complete Ukrainian capitulation or expanded strikes on Western decision-making centers and supply networks before any settlement. Drone Warfare
• [New] Russia's second front The most dangerous front in Europe in 2026 will shift from the trenches in Donetsk to the hybrid war between Russia and NATO as Vladimir Putin seeks to erode European support for Ukraine before economic strain impairs his ability to prosecute the hot war. The AI Journal
• [New] The U.S.-led efforts to end the war in Ukraine have entered a pivotal stage and is exposing that there will NEVER be peace between the EU abd Russia. Armstrong Economics
• [New] Geopolitical risk is expect to remain high and rising in 2026 driven by U.S. tariffs, rising defence spending, the Ukraine War, and ongoing Middle East risk. InvestmentMarkets
• [New] NATO and senior European leaders are warning the public to be prepared for a possible large-scale war and are proposing the establishment of a US-backed, European-led multinational military force to enforce a possible peace agreement in Ukraine. Chief Geopolitics Officer
• [New] US President Donald Trump warned he would intervene to save protesters if security forces opened fire, months after Israeli and US strikes on Iranian nuclear sites during a 12-day conflict.
• [New] In 2026, Israel will become far more critical, and far more disciplined, about which NGOs are permitted to operate along its borders and inside conflict zones such as Gaza. Future of Jewish
• [New] The Houthis could exploit the conflict between UAE - and Saudi-backed forces for their own territorial gains if the STC continues to redeploy forces from the front lines in western Yemen to Hadramawt and other eastern Yemeni Governorates. Critical Threats
• [New] The 2026 Budget will focus on returning the Israeli economy to a path of growth, following three years of war budgets in which the Israeli economy supported the security campaign. World Construction Network
• [New] Humanity is currently in a time of war and conflict, and in 2026, more geopolitical conflicts might emerge with risks of local wars likely to intensify. Ecns
• [New] The U.S.'s dangerous actions could potentially trigger a larger-scale war in Latin America. Ecns

Last updated: 13 January 2026