Global Scans · Economy · Weekly Summary

DRIVER: The global economy still faces serious headwinds and political uncertainty potentially balanced by the enormous promise of technological advancements in many fields. Read on to get a solid handle on the opportunities and risks you and your organization may likely face and set your sails accordingly.

• [New] XP expects oil export prices to rise 22% in 2026, alongside a 7% increase in volumes, taking oil exports to $58 billion this year. valorinternational
• [New] By 2026, over 80% of enterprises will have used generative AI APIs or models in production environment. Site Title
• [New] Rystad Energy estimates Russia's spare production capacity, defined as barrels that could return quickly if all constraints were lifted, at around 620,000 bpd in 2026, rising modestly to 700,000 bpd in 2027. Rystad Energy
• [New] A projected global oil surplus in 2027 is expected to pressure benchmark prices, eroding Russia's bargaining power with buyers while deep crude discounts, sanctions-related costs and lower sales volumes continue to weigh on producer revenues. Rystad Energy
• [New] The upward revisions largely reflect stronger-than-expected exports, led by a solid soybean harvest that could produce record export volumes and by higher oil prices amid the war in the Middle East. valorinternational
• [New] As a complement to adoption data, we can anchor the economic weight by sector with PwC's 2030 view which quantifies 5G's GDP impact by industry-led by healthcare and smart utilities, followed by consumer & media (~ US$254 B), manufacturing, and financial services. cavliwireless.com
• [New] North America and Europe will remain attractive premium profit pools because branded, certified and sustainable products command higher prices. KEN research
• [New] The exact level of prices is not so important as the fact that rising prices reflect markets' growing uncertainty that the war in Iran, and shipping through the strait of Hormuz, will return to peaceful normalcy anytime soon. Windermere Real Estate
• [New] Asia-Pacific will see the most growth fueled by growing digital economies, volume of attacks and government investments in cybersecurity capabilities in China, India, Japan and South Korea. Knowledge Sourcing Intelligence
• [New] While global aquaculture continues to expand, Europe risks becoming increasingly dependent on production developed in other regions. misPeces - Aquaculture News - Aquatic Journalism and Ou
• [New] Digital payment volumes across Gulf Cooperation Council economies reached USD 227 billion in 2025 and are expected to exceed USD 360 billion by 2030. Mordor Intelligence
• [New] Increasing Trade and Investment: Peru's stable economy has attracted U.S. investment across multiple sectors, and President Fujimori's pro-business plans will create opportunities for the U.S. private sector and strengthen Peru's economic growth. Mirage News
• [New] The International Maritime Organization expects global fleet capacity to continue expanding through the 2020s as trade routes adjust following geopolitical shifts, with longer shipping routes through alternative corridors increasing overall fuel consumption. Persistence Market Research
• [New] The European Chips Act aims to increase Europe's share of global semiconductor production to 20% by 2030, encouraging investment in advanced packaging material supply chains across Germany, the Netherlands, and France. Persistence Market Research
• [New] Global GDP growth is expected to receive a boost in the first half of the year thanks to front-loaded fiscal stimulus, promoting a rebound in sentiment. J.P. MORGAN
• [New] Rising demand for critical battery minerals is expected to remain the primary growth driver, supported by accelerating electric vehicle production and the global transition toward clean energy technologies. Persistence Market Research
• [New] The conflict in the Middle East, which is causing high volatility in commodity prices and significant disruptions to supply chains, is weighing on trade. Coface
• The broader move toward a measurable digital economy in US finance means borders will keep fading from money even as they harden in politics. TechBullion
• Sluggish domestic consumption has vexed Beijing for several years, threatening to weigh down national growth even as exports and certain high-tech sectors boom. ST
• Global natural diamond production is forecast to remain in the range of approximately 100 million carats in 2026, down from over 150 million carats less than a decade ago, reflecting the depletion of legacy mines, limited new discoveries, and the suspension or closure of several mines industry-wide. News Powered by Cision
• Signs of progress for a potential peace deal in the Iran war have helped cool oil prices and, in turn, have eased inflation worries that could prompt a Fed rate hike and pushed Treasury yields lower. ST

Last updated: 25 August 2026