Global Scans · Economy · Weekly Summary

DRIVER: The global economy still faces serious headwinds and political uncertainty potentially balanced by the enormous promise of technological advancements in many fields. Read on to get a solid handle on the opportunities and risks you and your organization may likely face and set your sails accordingly.

• [New] Aluminum prices are forecast to remain strong, potentially hitting or exceeding $3,000 per ton in 2026 due to tight supply, driven by China's production caps, rising green energy demand (EVs, solar), and smelter issues like power costs in Europe. sooktrading.com
• [New] We expect China's actual economic growth this year to be around 4%. BOFIT
• [New] We expect China's actual economic growth to stay around 4% this year, and, due to the reduced boost from exports, growth should slow to around 15.5% in 2027 and about 3% in 2028. BOFIT
• [New] McKinsey & Company placed the global space economy at $630 billion in 2023 and projected it could reach close to $1.8 trillion by 2035. Sands Capital
• [New] Productivity gains from artificial intelligence-led innovation will allow the US economy to grow rapidly without adding to inflation. ST
• [New] US consumer inflation in April came in at 3.8%, a three-year high, with American households battered by years of above-expected price increases since the Covid-19 pandemic. ST
• [New] The Federal Reserve's favored top-line inflation gauge is rapidly approaching 4% as a war-driven spike in energy costs generates unease that price pressures will broaden. financialpost
• [New] Wars, the threat of future conflicts and other political violence activities are likely to undermine geopolitical and economic stability in 2026 and for years to come. iNLIP
• [New] Moderating inflation and expectations of lower U.S. interest rates should pressure the dollar in the coming months, but a recovery could begin in 2027. Morgan Stanley
• [New] The Fed will pursue a more dovish policy - one that keeps interest rates low even if inflation accelerates - that is likely to make riskier assets that benefit from faster economic growth more attractive. Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research (SIEPR)
• [New] If global economic uncertainty deepens or monetary policy remains accommodative, gold could continue climbing into 2027 and beyond. San Jose Jewelers
• [New] Gold historically thrives during periods of economic stress, currency volatility, and low real interest rates - all conditions that many analysts believe could persist into 2026. San Jose Jewelers
• [New] Alternative proteins (AP) have the potential to diversify the protein sources available for consumption while aligning with nutritional, environmental, and cultural needs and preferences. PubMed Central (PMC)
• [New] The emergence of AP alongside traditional animal-source proteins could offer broader choices for farmers regarding the production processes and greater resilience. PubMed Central (PMC)
• [New] Inventories are finite and physical oil systems cannot quickly normalize even if Hormuz reopens, raising the risk of tighter markets and higher prices later in 2026. investing.com
• [New] In response to higher inflation, the ECB and most other EU central banks are expected to tighten their monetary policy stance or, at a minimum, delay previously anticipated easing measures. Economy and Finance
• [New] Indonesia is currently entering an important phase of digital transformation, where AI, cloud technologies, and intelligent connectivity will become the key foundations of future digital economic growth. theregister
• [New] We believe that cross-industry collaboration will play a crucial role in building a strong digital foundation to support Indonesia's vision of becoming a leading digital economy. theregister
• [New] Ongoing conflicts, economic volatility, climate-related risks, advancement in technology and associated disruption, supply chain challenges and disruptions are reshaping the global landscape. Ministry of External Affairs, Government of India
• [New] As part of the 2026-27 Federal Budget, the Australian Government has proposed significant changes to the capital gains tax regime. Baker McKenzie

Last updated: 26 May 2026