Global Scans · Economy · Weekly Summary

DRIVER: The global economy still faces serious headwinds and political uncertainty potentially balanced by the enormous promise of technological advancements in many fields. Read on to get a solid handle on the opportunities and risks you and your organization may likely face and set your sails accordingly.

• [New] Credit Suisse examines how emerging capital markets could reshape global finance by 2030 as equity and bond issuance accelerates across developing economies. The Idea Farm
• [New] Morgan Stanley explores how AI driven disruption, gold's surprising weakness, and California's fiscal resilience are reshaping investor thinking. The Idea Farm
• [New] GMO explores late cycle risks, arguing the U.S. economy is far weaker than headline data suggests and increasingly split between productive and stagnant sectors. The Idea Farm
• [New] Ninety One assesses whether structural shifts - including rising twin deficits, fiscal unpredictability, global geopolitical rebalancing, and eroding U.S. rate advantages - could finally reverse a decades-long U.S. dollar up-cycle. The Idea Farm
• [New] The top four risks today are AI capital expenditure, fiscal sustainability, private markets and policy volatility. The Idea Farm
• [New] US oil production demand is expected to be resilient throughout the mid-century, despite the energy transition to electrification. The Idea Farm
• [New] 800 V EV platform normalization - the transition from current 400 V mainstream EV architecture to 800 V as the standard architecture for mid-range EVs by 2028-2030 - will systematically upgrade the harness specification and value content of the majority of global EV production. IMARC Group
• [New] Global Vehicle Production Growth: Emerging markets including India, ASEAN nations, and Brazil are accelerating vehicle production growth, with India's annual output projected to cross 6 million vehicles by 2030, all demanding locally assembled wiring harnesses. IMARC Group
• [New] Diversification challenges are compounded by global energy transitions, with Algeria's OPEC membership constraining production adjustments and exposing long-term revenue risks. Grokipedia
• [New] Asia-Pacific is projected to witness the fastest growth during the forecast period due to increasing investments in national space programs, rising satellite launch activities, and expanding space exploration initiatives across emerging economies. stratviewresearch.com
• [New] Sovereign debt sustainability remains a key vulnerability for Europe's financial stability outlook, particularly for high-debt Member States where elevated borrowing costs interact with weak growth prospects, compressing available fiscal space. European Banking Authority
• [New] Energy prices will peak sharply in 2026, pushing both oil and gas costs significantly higher and feeding directly into inflation and reduced purchasing power. European Banking Authority
• [New] As per the report 'Economics of Water Scarcity in MENA: Institutional Solutions' by the end of this decade, the amount of water available per capita annually will fall below the absolute water scarcity threshold of 500 cubic meters per person, per year. IMARC Group
• [New] Oil supply should gradually recover, lowering its Brent forecast to $80 a barrel by year-end from $85, while expecting prices to remain above pre-war levels for most of the coming year. MarineLink
• [New] Global demand for natural flake graphite is forecast to more than double within a decade - rising from approximately 1.2 million tonnes in 2025 to nearly 3 million tonnes by 2035 - driven by the rapid expansion of electric vehicle production and battery energy storage. GlobeNewswire
• [New] Generative AI has the potential to add $4.4 trillion in economic value across corporate use cases annually. ResumeHog
• [New] CCS Insight has not specified when memory prices might return to typical levels seen in consumer devices, but ongoing growth in AI infrastructure suggests that relief in prices is unlikely in the near term. gHacks
• [New] Global smartphone shipments are expected to decline by 15% in 2026 as increasing memory prices driven by AI technology push up device costs. gHacks
• [New] Canada has the strong potential to grow its manufacturing base for renewable energy technologies, batteries and battery components, and other strategic applications, underpinned by its abundant low-emissions power and critical mineral resources. IEA
• [New] As ongoing global political conflicts, particularly between the US, Israel, and Iran, continue to disrupt global oil markets, driving prices higher and threatening Asia's energy security, Asia's heavy reliance on imported fossil fuels is acutely exposed to economic risks. Fossil Fuel Treaty
• [New] The Middle East conflict remains an active wildcard: if it escalates further, commodity price shocks could delay the inflation outlook materially. Integrated Finance Group
• [New] AI is the biggest driver pushing global datacenter electricity use to more than double by 2030 to around 945 terawatt-hours, slightly more than the entire electricity consumption of Japan. theregister
• [New] Global competition is expected to continue, as economies become increasingly reliant on technology to drive growth and spheres of influence emerge, led by the United States and China. GOV.UK

Last updated: 23 June 2026