Global Scans · Trade · Weekly Summary

WHAT'S NEXT?: Global trade policies could be upended with a new President in the White House, Brexit, a potential break-up of the European Union and China reacting to these changes in profound ways.

• [New] Another factor that may render the re-direction of trade flows even more emphatic is the further expansion in the BRICS + bloc over the course of the 2025-2034 period - partly via the further widening of the partnership circle as well as through core expansion. / China BRICS
• [New] The highest increase in trade is expected for the China-BRICS + pair, where trade is projected to rise by 5.5%. BRICS
• [New] China's trade growth is projected to increase as it surpasses the US as a trade partner with the Global South. BRICS
• [New] China, the main supplier, has a rule in place that it will not export rare earth minerals or magnets to US defence-related businesses, only to civilian entities like automakers. The AIDEM
• [New] Tariff clouds are clearing, most central banks have dialled back restrictive monetary policy, and in aggregate the world will benefit from additional fiscal stimulus in 2026. Global English
• [New] Aggressive reshoring of supply chains could decrease global trade by 18% and reduce global real GDP by more than 5% without consistently improving resilience to disruptions. Retailwire
• [New] China's unique model of mercantilist state-run capitalism produces overcapacity that could overwhelm world export markets, and has threatened to crowd-out producers in many developed and developing countries. Policy Center
• [New] Discussions are expected to center on tightening rules-of-origin provisions - particularly limiting Chinese-content in goods claiming USMCA treatment - and on mechanisms to prevent tariff circumvention through low-value assembly operations. The Rio Times
• [New] Globally, trade uncertainty and a prolonged Middle East conflict could weaken external demand, disrupt mineral exports, raise production costs and consumer prices, and slow growth. World Bank
• [New] An operational northern sea route will convey substantial savings in Atlantic-Pacific transportation costs and be of keen interest to several north Asian and European export-oriented economies. Macdonald-Laurier Institute
• [New] There is Turkey's sticky inflation, which is expected to reach 25% in 2026, and a widening trade deficit. Middle East Eye
• [New] Targeted deregulation, stronger competition policy, equal treatment of state-owned and private firms, streamlined trade policies, and more reliable electricity supply will be critical to unlocking private investment and expanding job creation. fundsforNGOs News - Grants and Resources for Sustainabi
• [New] Ongoing trade turmoil has underscored other economic vulnerabilities in Canada, including lagging productivity growth that makes economic shocks difficult to handle. RBC Economics
• [New] Ongoing developments in the Middle East, evolving trade policies, and supply chain disruptions continue to influence pricing and availability, while innovation in retail, foodservice, and consumer products signals where growth opportunities lie. SeafoodNews
• [New] Global trade uncertainty reduces UK business investment: when companies cannot predict the trading environment, they defer capital allocation. US Recession News
• [New] KPMG's UK Economic Outlook explicitly identifies net trade as likely to remain weak because recent changes in US tariff policy will, on balance, make UK exporters less competitive in the face of higher trade barriers. US Recession News
• [New] Johnson & Johnson plans to spend $55 billion to build facilities in the United States, partly responding to trade and supply chain pressures. Business Facilities Magazine
• [New] For U.S. universities, recruiting in China can feel like trying to steer by lightning: headlines about geopolitics, visa risk, and trade conflict dominate the news cycle, while the factors that actually shape student decisions move more quietly. Sunrise
• [New] A protracted conflict in the Middle East could have significant implications for Bangladesh, including higher inflation, reduced fiscal space from rising energy subsidies, and a weaker current account due to higher import costs, weaker exports, and lower remittances. World Bank
• [New] The US is leaning hard on India to give companies like Amazon and Walmart full eCommerce access, threatening a 26% tariff on Indian goods if barriers are not removed. Technology for Marketing 2025
• [New] Besides the (n-2) trade regime providing diversification opportunities, many countries have found it more challenging to benefit from maintaining trading relationships with both the U.S. and China, the world's two biggest economies. Policy Center

Last updated: 16 April 2026