Trade

WHAT'S NEXT?: Global trade policies could be upended with a new President in the White House, Brexit, a potential break-up of the European Union and China reacting to these changes in profound ways.

[New] The growth forecast for Mexico is below that of its North American trade partners, the United States and Canada, which the IMF predicts will suffer contractions of 8% and 8.4%, respectively, in 2020.
[New] The first stage of 100,000 tonnes of annual capacity is expected to come online in 2020, and will produce nickel sulphate for export to China.
[New] More recently, in the first semester of 2020, COVID-19-related disruptions to the local markets and trade, already hampered by the lingering impact of the prolonged conflict, provided further support, as did the lower imports due to the border screening implemented by the Government of Uganda.
[New] In the second half of 2020, China is expected to receive about 80 million oil barrels over July-December based at the current buying pace, as Beijing steps up efforts to comply with the Phase 1 trade deal.
[New] The UK has secured a free trade agreement with Japan, which is the UK's first major trade deal as an independent trading nation and will increase trade with Japan by an estimated £15.2 billion.
[New] Rapidly rising almond production coupled with trade wars and COVID-19 impacts have cut prices for farmers nearly in half over the past year and they will not likely fully recover for at least a couple of seasons.
[New] If no trade agreement is completed by the end of the year, the UK will not have any formal deal with the EU - which accounted for 43% of UK exports in 2019.
[New] Irish businesses should act on the assumption that the UK and EU will fail to reach a free trade agreement before the end of the year.
[New] Credit rating agency Fitch has revised its Brexit view and now expects the UK-EU trade relationship to move to World Trade Organisation (WTO) terms at the start of next year due to the lack of progress in talks.
[New] China's steel exports have been subject to 15 new anti-dumping investigations in the first nine months of the year, more than all of last year, as experts warn that the US-China trade war and the coronavirus pandemic have hastened a trend towards global protectionism.
[New] Economic growth will take a hit for 2020 as trade flows and prices are still affected by multi-country lockdowns even though many supply chains are starting to get back to some semblance of normality.
[New] The real value of Australia's gold exports is forecast to set a record of $26 billion in 2019-20, driven by higher prices and export volumes, before declining to $21 billion in 2024-25 as gold prices ease back.
[New] Australia's LNG export volumes are forecast to rise from 75 million tonnes in 2018-19 to 81 million tonnes in 2020-21, as the last two projects in Australia's recent wave of LNG investment ramp up, before edging back down to 80 million tonnes by 2024-25.
[New] Australia's export volumes are forecast to grow from 210 million tonnes in 2018-19 to 224 million tonnes by 2024-25, as a number of mines ramp up production.
[New] Japan Domestic demand fell by only 7% y/y in Q2 as export declines outpaced imports, and private consumption will contract faster than investment in the rest of the year.
World trade in cereals for 2020-21 is forecast at 441.4 million tonnes, 1.6% above 2019-21 due to anticipated larger shipments of rice and coarse grains.
The recommencement of Chinese imports of US LNG will contribute to China's commitment under the Phase One trade deal to buy US$ 52 billion of energy products from the US in 2020 and 2021.
The Southeast Asian country will rely on imported liquefied natural gas to feed some of its power plants running on supply from its Malampaya gas field in western Philippine waters, expected to dry up within the next few years, and new units.
Dairy inventory build-up will put downward pressure on prices in the months ahead in an environment of competition for reduced import demand as China, the world's largest dairy import market, is forecasted to reduce imports 15% YOY in 2020.
Horticulture Rabobank expects resurgence in Covid-19 in both the US and Australia to subdue import demand for products exposed to food service channels across the remainder of 2020.
The value of international, cross-border trade in services will rise from $6.1 trillion in 2019 to $8 trillion by 2025 - a 31% increase in overall value.
Over the coming decade, sugar exports are projected to remain highly concentrated, with Brazil consolidating its position as the leading exporter (from 35% of world trade in the base period to 38% by 2029).

See full forecast

Last updated: 24 September 2020