Emerging Weak Signal: Military AI Governance as a Catalyst for Global Trade and Geopolitical Realignment

Military artificial intelligence (AI) is rapidly evolving without an established global regulatory framework, creating a significant weak signal that could trigger broad systemic disruptions across industries, international governance, and trade. This oversight in regulation intersects with shifting multilateral trade dynamics and emerging geopolitical blocs, revealing complex, interlinked trends with the potential to reshape global strategic intelligence and scenario planning in unpredictable ways.

What’s Changing?

The integration of AI into military systems is advancing at pace, predominantly through commercial AI services repurposed for defense. Yet, there is no comprehensive international governance mechanism to regulate these applications. This regulatory gap risks undermining international humanitarian law (IHL) principles and destabilizing existing power balances (see Minnesota Journal of International Law).

Simultaneously, the global trade system faces historic challenges. The World Trade Organization (WTO) forecasts a contraction in world merchandise trade due to policy shifts favoring bilateral over multilateral agreements (Council on Foreign Relations). Moreover, the WTO’s relevance appears tenuous as major actors redirect diplomacy toward selective pacts, risking fragmentation. The WTO also confronts pressure to embed climate clauses blocking trade challenges against carbon reduction policies, aligning trade diplomacy with sustainability goals (Canadian Centre for Policy Alternatives).

Intersecting with trade diplomacy are geopolitical shifts. BRICS nations are consolidating a more cohesive stance in global governance, potentially bridging gaps between emerging markets and western-dominated frameworks (IPS Journal). This may counterbalance rising illiberal tendencies within traditional power centers, creating alternative governance models. The UK’s relations with China, a defining force across technology and governance, further complicate global alignments (iNews).

In this context, AI’s role in trade is expanding rapidly: nearly 90% of firms using AI report tangible benefits in managing trade risks, while 56% note enhanced capabilities in mitigating emerging trade uncertainties (Global Trade Magazine). However, the WTO cautions that AI’s diffusion may deepen economic divides without intentional inclusivity and infrastructure investments (FTI Consulting).

Why is this Important?

The lack of a unified framework to govern military AI can disrupt fragile global governance mechanisms, directly impacting international trade and diplomacy. As AI-wielding states escalate military capabilities without clear boundaries, geopolitical tensions may increase, fragmenting international trade agreements and complicating supply chains.

The decline in WTO multilateralism coinciding with more militant AI deployment may accelerate a system of competing blocs rather than cooperative regimes. BRICS potentially leveraging a united front could shape alternative governance models, influencing trade rules and standards in ways Western businesses and governments may not fully anticipate.

Without equitable AI integration policies and digital infrastructure investments, economic divides could widen, undermining global stability. This may create a feedback loop—where strained global systems reinforce competitive trade and security policies, elevating risks of conflict or trade wars exacerbated by AI-driven military advancements.

Implications

Strategic planners should consider the following implications across sectors and governments:

• Regulatory Innovation in Military AI: Industry, governments, and multilateral bodies may need to collaboratively develop adaptive regulatory frameworks to govern AI’s military use, integrating ethical principles and legal compliance to mitigate risks of destabilization.
• Recalibration of Trade Strategies: Businesses reliant on global supply chains could face volatility as trade agreements shift from multilateral to bilateral or bloc-oriented pacts influenced by geopolitical AI dynamics. Diversification and scenario-based risk management are likely to become priorities.
• Digital and AI Infrastructure Investment: Nations and corporations may find it essential to invest in inclusive digital infrastructure to prevent AI from deepening economic divides. This could become a criterion for participation in future trade systems or security partnerships.
• Geopolitical Scenario Planning: BRICS and China’s growing influence signals a potential restructuring of global governance standards around AI, trade, and security. Stakeholders should prepare for alternative governance models and evaluate their impacts on existing alliances.

These trends point to a future in which military AI governance acts as a driver—not merely a security issue but as a disruptive force influencing trade patterns, diplomatic alignment, and international law enforcement. The interconnectedness of AI in both military applications and trade processes underscores the need for comprehensive foresight and coordinated strategies.

Questions

• How can international institutions effectively regulate military AI to protect humanitarian laws without stifling technological innovation?
• What contingency plans should businesses develop to navigate a trade landscape increasingly shaped by geopolitical tensions around AI and military technologies?
• In what ways could emerging governance models from BRICS and other blocs redefine global trade rules related to AI and sustainability?
• How might uneven AI adoption and infrastructure affect economic inequality and global market stability over the next decade?
• What role could AI play in mediating or exacerbating conflicts between nations in both trade and military domains?

Keywords

Military AI; Artificial Intelligence Governance; Global Trade Fragmentation; BRICS Governance; Digital Infrastructure Investment; International Humanitarian Law

Bibliography

• The use of commercial AI services in war spotlights the urgency in implementing international regulations on military AI applications. Minnesota Journal of International Law.
• Global trading system faces historic change. Council on Foreign Relations.
• Canada will support a climate peace clause at the WTO. Canadian Centre for Policy Alternatives.
• Harder, Better, Faster, Stronger: The Future Role of the Global South and BRICS in Global Governance. IPS Journal.
• China is a defining force in technology, trade and global governance. iNews.
• 2026 Global trade outlook: What to watch. Global Trade Magazine.
• AI risks deepening economic divides without inclusive policies and digital infrastructure investment. FTI Consulting.