Space

A Future Prognosis

Athena @ Shaping Tomorrow

17 June 2025
Introduction
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Contents
User Guide
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Sources
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Web Searches
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World Outlook
Main factors that cause something to happen globally
By the end of this decade, the U.S. and its allies could face a gap in American presence in LEO amidst a continued Chinese interest in strategic lunar geography - a scenario with implications not only for science and exploration but also for U.S. leadership and the global space economy. SpaceNews
China has launched a probe to collect samples from the far side of the moon in a world first, part of its goal to land a human on the lunar surface by 2030. The Guardian
China has launched a probe to collect samples from the far side of the moon - in a world first - as part of its goal to land a human on the lunar surface by 2030. The Guardian
Global regions, coloured according to number of forecasts
SWOT
Strengths
  • A private lunar lander named the Resilience, from Japan is closing in on the moon, and will be aiming for a touchdown on the unexplored far northern area of the moon with a mini rover. Business Tech Africa
  • While the RESILIENCE lander continues its journey, ispace engineers will complete trajectory control maneuvers from the Mission Control Center to direct RESILIENCE from deep space towards the Moon. ispace
  • In 2050, space tourism will become a reality, offering opportunities for entrepreneurs to tap into the burgeoning space industry.
Weaknesses
  • Elon Musk's threat to decommission Dragon spacecraft, after a fallout with Trump, raises concerns over ISS access and future moon landings. / USA The Economic Times
  • ISS is replanning with a focus on maintaining minimal safe operations and very limited research essential to support Moon and Mars exploration until its retirement in 2030. SpaceNews
  • Failure will have a wide resonance: NASA will have to adjust the plans for the Artemis III mission and take into account possible delays, international partners are closely monitoring Starship's progress, and competitors like Blue Origin are encouraged to accelerate their development. Universe Space Tech
Opportunities
  • The potential operationalization of lunar resources, such as helium-3, could alter global power dynamics. Sustainability Times
  • Central to China's lunar strategy is the extraction of helium-3, a rare isotope with the potential to revolutionize nuclear fusion technology. Sustainability Times
  • The ongoing Lunar surface synthetic aperture radar for Earth observation (simulation) project will focus on developing a satellite with a SAR imaging width of around 3,500-4,500 km and spatial resolution better than 100m. Orbital Today
Threats
  • While the Artemis Accords recognize the importance of compliance with the Outer Space Treaty, it risks further fragmenting the global Space governance framework by prioritizing commercial interests over other considerations. SpringerLink
  • Moon Kim-soo warns that a close alignment with Moscow could fracture consensus within the Atlantic alliance and compromise Seoul's commitments to Ukraine and liberal democratic norms. Eurasia Review
  • The moon may start getting congested, contested, and competitive just like the Earth's orbit, while private entities will have to operate in a state of legal uncertainty.
Influencers
Countries
Cities
People
Organizations
S-Curve

A framework that describes a 4-phase level of maturity to help determine potential and inform innovation strategy.

Weak
Mars, moon, astronaut, lunar, lander, commercial
Emerging
artificial intelligence, 4G, blockchain, EV, crypto, moon
Maturing
moon, lunar, astronaut, Mars, commercial, agency
Declining
moon, company, lunar, Mars, astronaut, budget
Sentiment
Past Year: Stable
Compare changing sentiment to a benchmark of all forecasts
By 2028, a dedicated hydrogen prototype category will be introduced at Le Mans, allowing entries powered either by hydrogen combustion engines or hydrogen fuel cells, with energy stored in liquid form, a first for global motorsport. DSF.my | Drive Safe & Fast
15% of the global workforce, or 400 million workers, might lose their job to AI or automation by 2030. Whats the Big Data
PEST
Political
  • Musk's advocacy to reach the Red Planet has continued despite increasing intentions by China to become only the second country to put humans on the Moon by 2030. Yahoo News
  • In a decade or two when the Artemis Program exists only in the rear-view mirror or history, it could finally become the global governance framework for all nations exploring and exploiting space beyond Earth orbit. Room The Space Journal of Asgardia
  • The Lunar New Year, potential U.S. port disruptions, and new regulatory frameworks are among the key factors influencing supply chains for businesses in Australia and New Zealand. Seabridge Global Logistics
Economic
  • Analysts at ING are expecting a modest uptick in the year-on-year number to around 0.4% YoY, as we expect food inflation to see an uptick from the Lunar New Year effect, but non-food inflation is likely to remain weak as price competition remains cutthroat. / China investing.com
  • A report by NASA's Office of Inspector General in August found quality issues with Boeing's work on the Exploration Upper Stage, a more powerful upper stage planned for the Block 1 B version of SLS that will begin service on Artemis 4. SpaceNews
  • With companies like SpaceX and Blue Origin paving the way for space tourism, there will be a need for professionals who understand the logistics and management of space travel experiences. Mintly
Social
  • The best viewing location will be Canada, where up to 93% of the Sun will be covered by the Moon, making it the most dramatic region for observers. International Star Registry - Name a Star
  • With the Artemis 2 mission scheduled for 2026, having humans aboard spacecraft in cislunar space for the first time in 53 years will require infrastructure and the means to protect it. SpaceNews
  • Whilst the Wolf Amendment remains, it is unlikely in the short term that China will join and it may thus prevent the Artemis Accords from being adopted as a global framework for responsible behaviours in space. Room The Space Journal of Asgardia
Technological
  • The lunar occultation of Mars will be visible from parts of Canada, most of Scandinavia and Russia, and parts of Asia. Live Science
  • Skywatchers in northern latitudes might even be able to catch a lunar occultation, when the moon appears to swallow a planet from the sky. Live Science
  • If, for instance, microbes can thrive in a lake buried beneath Earth's south polar ice cap, maybe similar organisms could exist in glancingly similar extraterrestrial environments, such as the mysterious ice-covered ocean of Jupiter's moon Europa or water-logged regions of Mars's subsurface. Scientific American
Financial Impact
The global space economy, including lunar pursuits, is expected to reach $1 trillion by 2030, with significant contributions from private sector investments. Science Magazine
PETs are projected to unleash between $1.1 trillion and $2.9 trillion of value, as highlighted in a report by Lunar Ventures. Syntheticus AG
Launch services account for $32 billion, growing at 15.8% annually, while space tourism emerges as a nascent but promising sector, projected to reach $1.7 billion by 2025. Medium
Click on the dots or the lines to see the connections
System Map
Organizations
Sectors
Cities
Countries
People
Scenarios
Creates plausible alternative futures of what can happen and encourages development of a robust, agile response
By the end of this decade, the U.S. and its allies could face a gap in American presence in LEO amidst a continued Chinese interest in strategic lunar geography - a scenario with implications not only for science and exploration but also for U.S. leadership and the global space economy. SpaceNews
The robotic Chang' e 5 returned lunar samples back to Earth in 2020 and Chang' e 6, which launches in May 2024, will bring back the first samples from the Moon's far side. BBC
NASA's Artemis II mission, a warmup for a lunar landing planned for 2025, will mark the first time astronauts have gone beyond low Earth orbit since the Apollo 17 mission, in 1972. IEEE Spectrum
Warnings
Changing proportion of published forecasts
Though the danger to Earth has now dropped dramatically, there's still a small possibility it could strike the Moon, potentially causing debris that threatens satellites and human space activity. SciTechDaily
(only 14 hours from the Moon) + Planetary Defence early asteroid detection sensors on multiple 100,000 km tethers on each side of the Earth (206,000 km baseline) for stereoscopic vision will warn of incoming asteroids from the Sun or out of the asteroid belts. International Space Elevator Consortium
Solutions
Know how others are tackling issues with this topic
Astronomers have discovered two white dwarf stars just 150 light-years away on a collision course that will end in a massive Type 1 a supernova-set to outshine the Moon in Earth's night sky. Apple Podcasts
The Moonlight project will provide the first off-planet commercial telecommunications network, supporting lunar communication and navigation services. Royal Aeronautical Society
Harvesting the quantities of Helium-3 that Interlune envisions would require processing millions of tons of lunar regolith, an undertaking comparable to operating a copper mine on Earth. SpaceNews
Key topics
Extremes
Investigate what’s transforming or collapsing
NASA plans to get humans back on the Moon within this decade, so designing systems that make a sustained human presence possible on our cold, atmosphere - less satellite are of utmost importance. Gizmodo
As the first crewed mission of the Artemis program, Artemis II will test and validate the technologies required for future lunar landings and, ultimately, human exploration of Mars. Copernical.com
For a very long time to come, the future overflowing numbers of Earth-humans will not be able to flee from Earth and settle on Mars, for example - although in a few years' time, efforts will begin to use extremely primitive rocket technology to reach the moon. CR 908: Deliberate Poisoning and the Alleged Rebirth "
What's Next
Changing proportion of material mentioning future years
In the coming year, Elon Musk's SpaceX plans to continue testing its Starship rocket, which is designed to deliver cargo and people to near-Earth orbits, as well as to the Moon and Mars. Hitecher
With the return to the Moon already started with robotics spacecraft and with humans in the next few years, planning for exploration beyond LEO is becoming finally a reality, while it is expected that the world's space agencies will leave much of the work in LEO to private organizations. IAA - The International Academy of Astronautics
Questions
Can?
How Accurately Can Lunar Symbolism Predict Individual Future Changes? Insightful Spiritual
How can a company protect its investment in a lunar mine if it must be freely accessible by all? Space Daily
What can be the geopolitical and economic implications of water-ice discovery on the Moon? The Indian Express
How?
How long will ispace's Resilience last on the moon? Space
How Might Atmospheric or Environmental Factors Affect the New Moon's Energy Perception? Spirituality Essence
How can India contribute to future lunar missions? Raman Academy
Who?
Exploration of new frontiers will produce new ways of imagining, new challenges, new technologies that can be of tremendous utility, says Grayling, who moderated a fireside chat Monday that was part of Northeastern's Thinking the Future series and recently published a book, Who Owns the Moon? phys.org
Who is in the best position to build long-term industrialization on the moon? Politico
Who will be most affected by the new moon? My Imperfect Life
What?
What does the Scorpio influence mean for the full moon? Spiritual With Liza
What other groundbreaking technologies will emerge as we strive to make lunar habitation a reality? Sustainability Times
What Does the Future Hold for Human Exploration on the Moon? TravelPander
When?
What happens when there's a private space mishap that strands paying passengers in orbit or on the moon? SpaceNews
When will 100 metric tons of clean, processed, water extracted at the lunar poles and positioned where we want it, cost less than a few tens of millions of dollars? Space
How will geopolitical tensions between China and the U.S. play out when it comes to mining the Moon? Satellite Today
Will?
Will an international space insurance risk pool be an answer to the increasing financial risks connected with mega satellite constellations, the growth in space tourism, the risks relating to non-astronauts, space debris and third party liability? Orbital Today
Where will ispace's lander touch down on the moon? Space
Will space tourism impact the environment? Franetic | Marketing and Digital Transformation Agency
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